Just got out of my TWO exams today which severely limited my ability to research this weeks lines (Note: it had no impact at all on my ability to research this weeks lines). But now, with a little help from Lupe Fiasco, I’m getting in the zone for the weekend and more importantly, getting serious about how I’m going to pay for a trip to Tallahassee in a few weeks. Last week was a good starting point, 4-2 ATS. I missed Vandy +10 against LSU which was silly on my part. I wrote the paragraph giving LSU the win then decided to grow a pair and totally blew it. I’d make the Miss St. bet 10 times out of 10. That’s why it’s gambling. This week, we’ve got another decent slate of games, so lets get to it.
First up, Vandy at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is laying 12 at home. Vandy got 10 at home, so this is basically the same line as last week. Difference is, Vandy is on the road, Ole Miss has a lot to prove, and don’t have much coming up to be looking past an SEC opponent. Vandy doesn’t ever have to worry about looking over anyone because they suck. I’ll lay the points, Ole Miss -12.
Florida travels to Tennessee in a tough game to call. The Football Jesus even seemed flustered at this line. But he did say one key phrase when I spoke to him that tilted me towards Florida, “If they’re still running any of that defense Monte Kiffin laid out, they should keep it close.” Problem is, I don’t think they are. Tennessee can only run the ball pretty well and Florida’s defense has been strong. Give Florida one dimension to focus on and they’ll crush you. I see turnovers and big plays from Chris Rain… er, Jeff Demps. Unless Bruce Pearl can make a few quick calls, Tennessee is in trouble here. I’ll take Florida -14.
Is this Auburn with a Lake travels to Auburn or the Tigers vs. the Tigers. Pathetic either way. I could say the Auburn Tigers and still leave some people confused. Auburn (the one in Alabama) is a touchdown favorite at home. This is a tough one to call and I’ve gone back and forth many times. Both have tough games in conference the following week. The SEC is better. The ACC has something to prove. My head says to go with the dog here. My heart wants to take the SEC. But since I cashed my NC State bet yesterday, I’m sticking with the ACC vibe, though Auburn wins the game. Clemson +7.
Miss St. travels to LSU in a game I had to pressure KLSU’s Jason Templet to grow a pair and pick his hometown Tigers (Seriously? Couldn’t even pretend to have confidence? Carter, teach this man a lesson). Miss St. couldn’t get it done at home with all summer to prepare for a defenseless Auburn on a Thursday night. Now we know they can’t pass the ball which means Patrick Peterson can sit in a rocking chair in the secondary and let his front 7 do work. LSU hasn’t faced anyone worth mentioning yet, so this will be a step up in class. It’s also their first home game and the crowd will be fired up. Keep riding the LSU wagon for now, but prepare to abandon ship once the real schedule comes around. LSU -7
Arkansas and Ryan Mallet travel to Athens where they’re getting 2 points. Arkansas is in the exact same spot Georgia was in last week: first real game, on the road, early start, hostile environment, key running back is injured. They don’t have a first year quarterback but they also don’t have a quarterback who played well on the road last year. Arkansas struggled to block ULM’s blitzes last week (something I discussed with a wide-eyed Aaron Murray who also watched the game). Arkansas struggled to block ULM’s blitzes last week (Not a typo, just making sure you get the message). How will they counter the 3-4 blitz-o-rama especially when their “best big-game ‘back” is out according to Jimmy Carter of the Arkansas Traveler? I think Georgia gets off to a big start, then runs the ball down their throats. Arkansas may get it close late, but not enough to cover the 2. Georgia -2.
That’s it and that’s all. Until next time, Ball Hard.